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Helmond Sport vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Roda
Roda
12/23/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 20GS Staalwerken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Helmond Sport39%
×Draw25%
Roda36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helmond Sport
1.50
Roda
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 148 away

creates per match

Helmond Sport
1.39
Roda
1.38

allows per match

Helmond Sport
1.51
Roda
1.61

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw
64%
Helmond Sport or Roda
75%
Draw or Roda
61%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+
19%
Roda wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals
78%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
44%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
19%
Roda 1+ goals
76%
Roda 2+ goals
42%
Roda 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
52%
Roda (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.51 · 148 matches

Roda away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.39 + Roda defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Roda attack 1.38 + Helmond Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Helmond Sport scores more
39%
level
25%
Roda scores more
36%

Helmond Sport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Helmond Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Helmond Sport vs Roda

Helmond Sport and Roda drew 3-3 in Eerste Divisie on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at GS Staalwerken Stadion in Helmond.