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Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
1/26/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 23GS Staalwerken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Helmond Sport36%
×Draw24%
NAC Breda40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helmond Sport
1.46
NAC Breda
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 90 away

creates per match

Helmond Sport
1.39
NAC Breda
1.62

allows per match

Helmond Sport
1.51
NAC Breda
1.53

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw
60%
Helmond Sport or NAC Breda
76%
Draw or NAC Breda
64%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+
17%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals
77%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
43%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
18%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
79%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
46%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
47%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.51 · 148 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.39 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + Helmond Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Helmond Sport scores more
36%
level
24%
NAC Breda scores more
40%

NAC Breda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda

Helmond Sport beat NAC Breda 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on January 26, 2024.

The match was played at GS Staalwerken Stadion in Helmond.