Helmond Sport 2–2 Jong PSV U21: Result & Stats

Helmond Sport

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Jong PSV U21

1/19/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 22GS Staalwerken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Helmond Sport43%

×Draw23%

Jong PSV U2134%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Helmond SportExpected goals in this matchJong PSV U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.52

Helmond Sport

1.73

Jong PSV U21

1.52

Helmond Sport creates 14% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 149 away

1.39

creates per match

1.52

1.51

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Helmond Sport

1.39

Jong PSV U21

1.52

allows per match

Helmond Sport

1.51

Jong PSV U21

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

Jong PSV U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw

66%

Helmond Sport or Jong PSV U21

77%

Draw or Jong PSV U21

57%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

22%

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

82%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

52%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

25%

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

78%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

45%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

56%

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.51 · 148 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.39 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Helmond Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Helmond Sport scores more

43%

level

23%

Jong PSV U21 scores more

34%

Helmond Sport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Helmond Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff