Helmi Jätkä 0–8 P-Iirot: Result & Stats

Helmi Jätkä

0 – 8

P-Iirot

4/2/2022

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundKauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Helmi Jätkä1%

×Draw3%

P-Iirot96%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Helmi JätkäExpected goals in this matchP-Iirot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

6.20

Helmi Jätkä

0.81

P-Iirot

6.20

P-Iirot creates 665% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

0.50

creates per match

4.40

8.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Helmi Jätkä

0.50

P-Iirot

4.40

allows per match

Helmi Jätkä

8.00

P-Iirot

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Helmi Jätkä+0.00on par

P-Iirot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmi Jätkä ↓

P-Iirot →

0–00%

0–11%

0–23%

0–36%

0–410%

1–00%

1–11%

1–22%

1–35%

1–48%

2–00%

2–10%

2–21%

2–32%

2–43%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (10%) · grid covers 45% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

86%14%4.5

70%30%

Double chance

Helmi Jätkä or draw

Helmi Jätkä or P-Iirot

97%

Draw or P-Iirot

99%

Winning margin

Helmi Jätkä wins by 2+

P-Iirot wins by 2+

90%

Team goals

Helmi Jätkä 1+ goals

56%

Helmi Jätkä 2+ goals

19%

Helmi Jätkä 3+ goals

P-Iirot 1+ goals

100%

P-Iirot 2+ goals

97%

P-Iirot 3+ goals

91%

Draw no bet

Helmi Jätkä (draw refunded)

P-Iirot (draw refunded)

99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Helmi Jätkä at home — creates 0.50, concedes 8.00 · 4 matches

P-Iirot away — creates 4.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Helmi Jätkä attack 0.50 + P-Iirot defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

P-Iirot attack 4.40 + Helmi Jätkä defence 8.00 → ÷2 → 6.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 96%?"

Helmi Jätkä scores more

level

P-Iirot scores more

96%

P-Iirot at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "P-Iirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff