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Helmi Jätkä vs JanPa — Suomen Cup 2018

Helmi Jätkä
Helmi Jätkä
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
JanPa
JanPa
2/24/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundKauppi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Helmi Jätkä4%
×Draw6%
JanPa90%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helmi Jätkä
1.42
JanPa
6.00

JanPa creates 323% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Helmi Jätkä
0.50
JanPa
4.00

allows per match

Helmi Jätkä
8.00
JanPa
2.33

finishing

Helmi Jätkä+0.00on par
JanPa+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmi Jätkä ↓

JanPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–34%
0–45%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–35%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–32%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 46% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
90%10%4.5
77%23%

Double chance

Helmi Jätkä or draw
10%
Helmi Jätkä or JanPa
94%
Draw or JanPa
96%

Winning margin

Helmi Jätkä wins by 2+
1%
JanPa wins by 2+
80%

Team goals

Helmi Jätkä 1+ goals
76%
Helmi Jätkä 2+ goals
41%
Helmi Jätkä 3+ goals
17%
JanPa 1+ goals
100%
JanPa 2+ goals
97%
JanPa 3+ goals
90%

Draw no bet

Helmi Jätkä (draw refunded)
4%
JanPa (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmi Jätkä at home — creates 0.50, concedes 8.00 · 4 matches

JanPa away — creates 4.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmi Jätkä attack 0.50 + JanPa defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

JanPa attack 4.00 + Helmi Jätkä defence 8.00 → ÷2 → 6.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Helmi Jätkä scores more
4%
level
6%
JanPa scores more
90%

JanPa at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "JanPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Helmi Jätkä 2–2 JanPa

Helmi Jätkä and JanPa drew 2-2 in Suomen Cup on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Kauppi tekonurmi in Tampere.