Hellas Verona 0–1 Sassuolo: Result & Stats

Hellas Verona

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sassuolo

A. Pinamonti 71'

10/3/2025

Serie A · Round 6Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona39%

×Draw28%

Sassuolo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Hellas Verona

1.23

Sassuolo

1.10

Hellas Verona creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

0.80

creates per match

1.16

1.05

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Hellas Verona

0.80

Sassuolo

1.16

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.05

Sassuolo

1.66

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less

Sassuolo-0.09on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

67%

Hellas Verona or Sassuolo

72%

Draw or Sassuolo

61%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

17%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

71%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

35%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

13%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

67%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

30%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

54%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sassuolo attack 1.16 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

39%

level

28%

Sassuolo scores more

33%

Hellas Verona at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

Walid Cheddira

17'

Unai NúñezPenalty cancelled

44'

Suat Serdar

59'

A. Fadera← A. Lauriente

59'

N. Pierini← C. Volpato

60'

K. Thorstvedt← A. Vranckx

62'

Kristian ThorstvedtPenalty cancelled

64'

Nicholas Pierini

65'

J. Akpa Akpro← R. Gagliardini

71'

75'

76'

76'

82'

85'

85'

D. Mosquera← D. Bradaric

87'

W. Cheddira← A. Pinamonti

90+1'

Rafik Belghali

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HellasSassuolo

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots11

0.80Expected Goals (xG)1.67

4Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots11

9On Target3

6Off Target4

2Blocked4

9Inside Box6

8Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

438Total Passes315

348Accurate Passes238

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

1.42Goals Prevented1.42

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Serie A: Hellas Verona 0–1 Sassuolo

Sassuolo beat Hellas Verona 1-0 in Serie A on October 3, 2025.

Goals: A. Pinamonti (71').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Verona.

Hellas Verona vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Hellas Verona 0–1 Sassuolo