Hellas Verona 2–3 Sassuolo: Result & Stats

Hellas Verona

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sassuolo

M. Zaccagni 90', 71' (pen)

H. Traorè 77'

F. Đuričić 51'

G. Raspadori 32'

8/21/2021

Serie A · Round 1Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona40%

×Draw28%

Sassuolo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.09

Hellas Verona

1.26

Sassuolo

1.09

Hellas Verona creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 30 away

0.80

creates per match

1.13

1.05

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Hellas Verona

0.80

Sassuolo

1.13

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.05

Sassuolo

1.72

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less

Sassuolo-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

68%

Hellas Verona or Sassuolo

72%

Draw or Sassuolo

60%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

18%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

72%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

36%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

13%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

66%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

30%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

56%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.72 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Sassuolo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sassuolo attack 1.13 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

40%

level

28%

Sassuolo scores more

32%

Hellas Verona at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Zaccagni

Hellas Verona · F

9.9

Match Events

23'

Maxime López

32'

G. Raspadori↳ F. Đuričić

35'

Miguel Veloso

45+1'

Miguel Veloso

45+1'

Miguel Veloso

46'

M. Cancellieri← N. Kalinić

51'

F. Đuričić↳ F. Caputo

55'

S. Di Carmine← F. Ceccherini

55'

A. Tameze← M. Hongla

67'

H. Traorè← G. Raspadori

71'

M. ZaccagniPenalty

73'

I. Ilić← A. Barák

74'

Samuel Di Carmine

74'

G. Magnani← N. Casale

77'

H. Traorè↳ J. Boga

79'

Filip Đuričić

84'

F. Magnanelli← D. Frattesi

84'

G. Defrel← F. Đuričić

90+1'

K. Ayhan← V. Chiricheș

90+1'

G. Scamacca← F. Caputo

90'

M. Zaccagni↳ D. Lazović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HellasSassuolo

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots18

7Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots18

4On Target7

8Off Target6

3Blocked5

11Inside Box9

4Outside Box9

Passing

39%Possession61%

312Total Passes525

257Accurate Passes465

82%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Sassuolo

Sassuolo beat Hellas Verona 3-2 in Serie A on August 21, 2021.

Goals: G. Raspadori (32'), F. Đuričić (51'), M. Zaccagni (71' pen, 90'), H. Traorè (77').

Sassuolo controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.

Hellas Verona vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Sassuolo