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Hellas Verona vs Cagliari — Serie A 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cagliari
Cagliari
11/30/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 15Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona41%
×Draw29%
Cagliari31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.21
Cagliari
1.01

Hellas Verona creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
0.80
Cagliari
0.97

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.05
Cagliari
1.61

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less
Cagliari-0.11scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Cagliari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
69%
Hellas Verona or Cagliari
71%
Draw or Cagliari
59%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
18%
Cagliari wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
70%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
34%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
12%
Cagliari 1+ goals
64%
Cagliari 2+ goals
27%
Cagliari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
57%
Cagliari (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Cagliari defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cagliari attack 0.97 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
41%
level
29%
Cagliari scores more
31%

Hellas Verona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Cagliari

Hellas Verona and Cagliari drew 0-0 in Serie A on November 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.