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Hellas Verona vs Bologna — Serie A 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bologna
Bologna
4/21/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 31Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona33%
×Draw31%
Bologna36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
0.96
Bologna
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
0.80
Bologna
0.99

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.05
Bologna
1.11

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less
Bologna+0.53scores more

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Bologna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
64%
Hellas Verona or Bologna
69%
Draw or Bologna
67%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
12%
Bologna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
62%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
25%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
7%
Bologna 1+ goals
64%
Bologna 2+ goals
27%
Bologna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
48%
Bologna (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Bologna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Bologna attack 0.99 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
33%
level
31%
Bologna scores more
36%

Bologna at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Hellas Verona 2–1 Bologna

Hellas Verona beat Bologna 2-1 in Serie A on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.