Hellas Verona U20 2–0 Lazio U20: Result & Stats

Hellas Verona U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lazio U20

I. Vermeșan 89' (pen)

L. Monticelli 42'

3/15/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 30Sinergy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hellas Verona U2042%

×Draw27%

Lazio U2030%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas Verona U20Expected goals in this matchLazio U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.10

Hellas Verona U20

1.35

Lazio U20

1.10

Hellas Verona U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.55

creates per match

0.89

1.32

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Hellas Verona U20

1.55

Lazio U20

0.89

allows per match

Hellas Verona U20

1.32

Lazio U20

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hellas Verona U20+0.00on par

Lazio U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona U20 ↓

Lazio U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hellas Verona U20 or draw

70%

Hellas Verona U20 or Lazio U20

73%

Draw or Lazio U20

58%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona U20 wins by 2+

20%

Lazio U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hellas Verona U20 1+ goals

74%

Hellas Verona U20 2+ goals

39%

Hellas Verona U20 3+ goals

15%

Lazio U20 1+ goals

67%

Lazio U20 2+ goals

30%

Lazio U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Lazio U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona U20 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

Lazio U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona U20 attack 1.55 + Lazio U20 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lazio U20 attack 0.89 + Hellas Verona U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hellas Verona U20 scores more

42%

level

27%

Lazio U20 scores more

30%

Hellas Verona U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hellas Verona U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

I. Vermesan

9'

31'

42'

49'

55'

F. Serra← K. Karsenty

60'

S. Dalla Riva← J. Peci

63'

A. Petta← T. Bordoni

63'

F. Sulejmani← T. Montano

78'

T. Mogentale← R. Agbonifo

82'

L. Ferrari← M. Zazza

82'

Cristo Muñoz← V. Farcomeni

86'

B. Scharner← A. Pavanati

86'

O. Barry← D. De Battisti

87'

F. Sulejmani

89'

I. VermeșanPenalty

90+1'

Hellas

Lazio

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: P. Sammarco

60'▲S. Dalla Riva←▼J. Peci

78'▲T. Mogentale←▼R. Agbonifo

86'▲B. Scharner←▼A. Pavanati

86'▲O. Barry←▼D. De Battisti

Hellas Verona U20 substitutes

RivaMogentaleScharnerBarry

Manager: S. Pirozzi

55'▲F. Serra←▼K. Karsenty

63'▲A. Petta←▼T. Bordoni

63'▲F. Sulejmani←▼T. Montano

82'▲L. Ferrari←▼M. Zazza

82'▲Cristo Muñoz←▼V. Farcomeni

Lazio U20 substitutes

SerraPettaSulejmaniFerrariMuñoz

Match Recap: Hellas Verona U20 vs Lazio U20

Hellas Verona U20 beat Lazio U20 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on March 15, 2025.

Goals: L. Monticelli (42'), I. Vermeșan (89' pen).

The match was played at Sinergy Stadium in Verona.

Hellas Verona U20 vs Lazio U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hellas Verona U20 vs Lazio U20