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Hellas Verona U20 vs Frosinone U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Hellas Verona U20
Hellas Verona U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Frosinone U20
Frosinone U20
3/8/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 29Sinergy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona U2051%
×Draw23%
Frosinone U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona U20
1.77
Frosinone U20
1.19

Hellas Verona U20 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona U20
1.55
Frosinone U20
1.05

allows per match

Hellas Verona U20
1.32
Frosinone U20
2.00

finishing

Hellas Verona U20+0.00on par
Frosinone U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona U20 ↓

Frosinone U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hellas Verona U20 or draw
74%
Hellas Verona U20 or Frosinone U20
77%
Draw or Frosinone U20
49%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona U20 wins by 2+
28%
Frosinone U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hellas Verona U20 1+ goals
83%
Hellas Verona U20 2+ goals
53%
Hellas Verona U20 3+ goals
26%
Frosinone U20 1+ goals
70%
Frosinone U20 2+ goals
33%
Frosinone U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Frosinone U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona U20 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

Frosinone U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona U20 attack 1.55 + Frosinone U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Frosinone U20 attack 1.05 + Hellas Verona U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hellas Verona U20 scores more
51%
level
23%
Frosinone U20 scores more
26%

Hellas Verona U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hellas Verona U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Hellas Verona U20 3–1 Frosinone U20

Hellas Verona U20 beat Frosinone U20 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Sinergy Stadium in Verona.