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Hellas Kagran vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Hellas Kagran
Hellas Kagran
FT
0 – 2
ASV 13
ASV 13
3/23/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 19Hellas Kagran Sport-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hellas Kagran49%
×Draw21%
ASV 1330%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Kagran
2.09
ASV 13
1.61

Hellas Kagran creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 59 away

creates per match

Hellas Kagran
1.21
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Hellas Kagran
1.97
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Hellas Kagran+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Kagran ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hellas Kagran or draw
70%
Hellas Kagran or ASV 13
79%
Draw or ASV 13
51%

Winning margin

Hellas Kagran wins by 2+
28%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hellas Kagran 1+ goals
88%
Hellas Kagran 2+ goals
62%
Hellas Kagran 3+ goals
34%
ASV 13 1+ goals
80%
ASV 13 2+ goals
48%
ASV 13 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hellas Kagran (draw refunded)
62%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Kagran at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Kagran attack 1.21 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.09

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Hellas Kagran defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hellas Kagran scores more
49%
level
21%
ASV 13 scores more
30%

Hellas Kagran at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hellas Kagran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hellas Kagran vs ASV 13

ASV 13 beat Hellas Kagran 2-0 in Landesliga - Wien on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Hellas Kagran Sport-Arena in Wien.