Hell Hunt 0–4 Tallinna Kalev: Result & Stats | Cup

Hell Hunt

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Tallinna Kalev

10/20/2020

Cup · 8th FinalsNike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hell Hunt10%

×Draw13%

Tallinna Kalev76%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hell HuntExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

3.17

Hell Hunt

1.13

Tallinna Kalev

3.17

Tallinna Kalev creates 181% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

4.00

2.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Hell Hunt

1.00

Tallinna Kalev

4.00

allows per match

Hell Hunt

2.33

Tallinna Kalev

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hell Hunt+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hell Hunt ↓

Tallinna Kalev →

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–38%

0–46%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hell Hunt or draw

24%

Hell Hunt or Tallinna Kalev

87%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev

90%

Winning margin

Hell Hunt wins by 2+

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Hell Hunt 1+ goals

68%

Hell Hunt 2+ goals

31%

Hell Hunt 3+ goals

11%

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals

96%

Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals

82%

Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Hell Hunt (draw refunded)

12%

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hell Hunt at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hell Hunt attack 1.00 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tallinna Kalev attack 4.00 + Hell Hunt defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Hell Hunt scores more

10%

level

13%

Tallinna Kalev scores more

76%

Tallinna Kalev at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff