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Hell Hunt vs JK Tabasalu — Cup 2020

Hell Hunt
Hell Hunt
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasaluadvanced
8/1/2024CupCup · Round of 64Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hell Hunt10%
×Draw12%
JK Tabasalu78%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hell Hunt
1.28
JK Tabasalu
3.56

JK Tabasalu creates 178% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hell Hunt
1.00
JK Tabasalu
4.78

allows per match

Hell Hunt
2.33
JK Tabasalu
1.56

finishing

Hell Hunt+0.00on par
JK Tabasalu+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hell Hunt ↓

JK Tabasalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Hell Hunt or draw
22%
Hell Hunt or JK Tabasalu
88%
Draw or JK Tabasalu
90%

Winning margin

Hell Hunt wins by 2+
4%
JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Hell Hunt 1+ goals
72%
Hell Hunt 2+ goals
37%
Hell Hunt 3+ goals
14%
JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
97%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
86%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Hell Hunt (draw refunded)
11%
JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hell Hunt at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

JK Tabasalu away — creates 4.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hell Hunt attack 1.00 + JK Tabasalu defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

JK Tabasalu attack 4.78 + Hell Hunt defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Hell Hunt scores more
10%
level
12%
JK Tabasalu scores more
78%

JK Tabasalu at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Hell Hunt 1–3 JK Tabasalu

JK Tabasalu beat Hell Hunt 3-1 in Cup on August 1, 2024.

The match was played at Nike Arena in Tallinn.