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Helios vs Rakvere Tarvas — Cup 2020

Helios
Heliosadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rakvere Tarvas
Rakvere Tarvas
7/23/2021CupCup · Round of 64Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Helios14%
×Draw15%
Rakvere Tarvas72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helios
1.30
Rakvere Tarvas
3.06

Rakvere Tarvas creates 135% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Helios
1.00
Rakvere Tarvas
1.80

allows per match

Helios
4.33
Rakvere Tarvas
1.60

finishing

Helios+0.00on par
Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helios ↓

Rakvere Tarvas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Helios or draw
28%
Helios or Rakvere Tarvas
85%
Draw or Rakvere Tarvas
86%

Winning margin

Helios wins by 2+
5%
Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Helios 1+ goals
73%
Helios 2+ goals
37%
Helios 3+ goals
14%
Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals
95%
Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals
80%
Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Helios (draw refunded)
16%
Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helios at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Rakvere Tarvas away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helios attack 1.00 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rakvere Tarvas attack 1.80 + Helios defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Helios scores more
14%
level
15%
Rakvere Tarvas scores more
72%

Rakvere Tarvas at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Rakvere Tarvas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Helios vs Rakvere Tarvas

Helios beat Rakvere Tarvas 3-1 in Cup on July 23, 2021.

The match was played at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion in Tartu.