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Helios vs Hiiumaa — Cup 2026

Helios
Helios
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hiiumaa
Hiiumaaadvanced
T. Suvi 88' (pen)
J. Saarnak 116'
K. Paju 102'
A. Valk 73'
8/21/2024CupCup · Round of 32Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Helios15%
×Draw14%
Hiiumaa70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helios
1.67
Hiiumaa
3.50

Hiiumaa creates 110% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Helios
1.00
Hiiumaa
2.67

allows per match

Helios
4.33
Hiiumaa
2.33

finishing

Helios+0.00on par
Hiiumaa+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helios ↓

Hiiumaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Helios or draw
30%
Helios or Hiiumaa
86%
Draw or Hiiumaa
85%

Winning margin

Helios wins by 2+
7%
Hiiumaa wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Helios 1+ goals
81%
Helios 2+ goals
50%
Helios 3+ goals
23%
Hiiumaa 1+ goals
97%
Hiiumaa 2+ goals
85%
Hiiumaa 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Helios (draw refunded)
18%
Hiiumaa (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helios at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Hiiumaa away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helios attack 1.00 + Hiiumaa defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hiiumaa attack 2.67 + Helios defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Helios scores more
15%
level
14%
Hiiumaa scores more
70%

Hiiumaa at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hiiumaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
A. Valk
88'
T. SuviPenalty
102'
K. Paju
116'
J. Saarnak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Helios 1–1 Hiiumaa

Helios and Hiiumaa drew 1-1 in Cup on August 21, 2024.

Goals: A. Valk (73'), T. Suvi (88' pen), K. Paju (102'), J. Saarnak (116').

The match was played at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion in Tartu.