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Heist vs KV Mechelen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Heist
Heist
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen
Y. Reuten 16'
M. Jannes 4'
H. Ozdemir 90', 60'
7/16/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Heist13%
×Draw24%
KV Mechelen64%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heist
0.58
KV Mechelen
1.67

KV Mechelen creates 188% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Heist
0.67
KV Mechelen
2.00

allows per match

Heist
1.33
KV Mechelen
0.50

finishing

Heist+0.00on par
KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heist ↓

KV Mechelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–118%
0–215%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Heist or draw
36%
Heist or KV Mechelen
76%
Draw or KV Mechelen
87%

Winning margin

Heist wins by 2+
3%
KV Mechelen wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Heist 1+ goals
44%
Heist 2+ goals
12%
Heist 3+ goals
2%
KV Mechelen 1+ goals
81%
KV Mechelen 2+ goals
50%
KV Mechelen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Heist (draw refunded)
16%
KV Mechelen (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heist at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heist attack 0.67 + KV Mechelen defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

KV Mechelen attack 2.00 + Heist defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Heist scores more
13%
level
24%
KV Mechelen scores more
64%

KV Mechelen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. Jannes
16'
Y. Reuten
60'
H. Ozdemir
90'
H. Ozdemir
Heist
KV
M. Annys
Manager: M. Annys
Frédéric Vanderbiest
Manager: Frédéric Vanderbiest

Friendlies Clubs: Heist 2–2 KV Mechelen

Heist and KV Mechelen drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 16, 2025.

Goals: M. Jannes (4'), Y. Reuten (16'), H. Ozdemir (60', 90').