Heimstetten 2–1 SpVgg Unterhaching: Result & Stats

Heimstetten

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

SpVgg Unterhaching

E. Tunc 43'

R. Strieder 1'

B. Bauer 90+1'

2/10/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Heimstetten24%

×Draw18%

SpVgg Unterhaching58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeimstettenExpected goals in this matchSpVgg Unterhaching

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.67

Heimstetten

1.68

SpVgg Unterhaching

2.67

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 59% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

1.15

4.20

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Heimstetten

1.50

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.15

allows per match

Heimstetten

4.20

SpVgg Unterhaching

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heimstetten+0.00on par

SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heimstetten ↓

SpVgg Unterhaching →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Heimstetten or draw

42%

Heimstetten or SpVgg Unterhaching

82%

Draw or SpVgg Unterhaching

76%

Winning margin

Heimstetten wins by 2+

11%

SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Heimstetten 1+ goals

81%

Heimstetten 2+ goals

50%

Heimstetten 3+ goals

24%

SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals

93%

SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals

74%

SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Heimstetten (draw refunded)

29%

SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heimstetten at home — creates 1.50, concedes 4.20 · 10 matches

SpVgg Unterhaching away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heimstetten attack 1.50 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.68

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 1.15 + Heimstetten defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Heimstetten scores more

24%

level

18%

SpVgg Unterhaching scores more

58%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

R. Strieder

43'

E. Tunc

46'

S. Zander← S. Zander

46'

Y. Gunzel← Y. Gunzel

68'

R. Strieder← R. Zada

68'

E. Tunc← A. Fambo

74'

F. Sabbagh← Schmitt

84'

L. Riglewski← J. Kadiric

84'

F. Aicher← F. Aicher

90+1'

B. Bauer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff