Heimstetten 4–2 Sonthofen: Result & Stats

Heimstetten

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sonthofen

3/29/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 27Sportpark Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Heimstetten55%

×Draw21%

Sonthofen24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeimstettenExpected goals in this matchSonthofen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.40

Heimstetten

2.19

Sonthofen

1.40

Heimstetten creates 56% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 33 away

2.63

creates per match

1.42

1.37

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Heimstetten

2.63

Sonthofen

1.42

allows per match

Heimstetten

1.37

Sonthofen

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heimstetten+0.00on par

Sonthofen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heimstetten ↓

Sonthofen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Heimstetten or draw

76%

Heimstetten or Sonthofen

79%

Draw or Sonthofen

45%

Winning margin

Heimstetten wins by 2+

34%

Sonthofen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Heimstetten 1+ goals

89%

Heimstetten 2+ goals

64%

Heimstetten 3+ goals

37%

Sonthofen 1+ goals

75%

Sonthofen 2+ goals

41%

Sonthofen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Heimstetten (draw refunded)

69%

Sonthofen (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heimstetten at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

Sonthofen away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heimstetten attack 2.63 + Sonthofen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.19

Sonthofen attack 1.42 + Heimstetten defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Heimstetten scores more

55%

level

21%

Sonthofen scores more

24%

Heimstetten at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Heimstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff