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Heimstetten vs Schwaben Augsburg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Heimstetten
Heimstetten
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
11/18/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 21Sportpark Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Heimstetten49%
×Draw22%
Schwaben Augsburg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heimstetten
1.98
Schwaben Augsburg
1.51

Heimstetten creates 31% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

creates per match

Heimstetten
2.63
Schwaben Augsburg
1.65

allows per match

Heimstetten
1.37
Schwaben Augsburg
1.32

finishing

Heimstetten+0.00on par
Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heimstetten ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Heimstetten or draw
70%
Heimstetten or Schwaben Augsburg
78%
Draw or Schwaben Augsburg
51%

Winning margin

Heimstetten wins by 2+
28%
Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Heimstetten 1+ goals
86%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
59%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
31%
Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
78%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
44%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Heimstetten (draw refunded)
62%
Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heimstetten at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heimstetten attack 2.63 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.98

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.65 + Heimstetten defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Heimstetten scores more
49%
level
22%
Schwaben Augsburg scores more
30%

Heimstetten at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Heimstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Heimstetten 1–0 Schwaben Augsburg

Heimstetten beat Schwaben Augsburg 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Heimstetten in Kirchheim bei München.