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Heimstetten vs Rain / Lech — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Heimstetten
Heimstetten
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rain / Lech
Rain / Lech
8/8/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 5Sportpark Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Heimstetten60%
×Draw20%
Rain / Lech20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heimstetten
2.27
Rain / Lech
1.25

Heimstetten creates 82% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 33 away

creates per match

Heimstetten
2.63
Rain / Lech
1.12

allows per match

Heimstetten
1.37
Rain / Lech
1.91

finishing

Heimstetten+0.00on par
Rain / Lech+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heimstetten ↓

Rain / Lech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Heimstetten or draw
80%
Heimstetten or Rain / Lech
80%
Draw or Rain / Lech
40%

Winning margin

Heimstetten wins by 2+
38%
Rain / Lech wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Heimstetten 1+ goals
90%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
66%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
39%
Rain / Lech 1+ goals
71%
Rain / Lech 2+ goals
36%
Rain / Lech 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Heimstetten (draw refunded)
75%
Rain / Lech (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heimstetten at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

Rain / Lech away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heimstetten attack 2.63 + Rain / Lech defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.27

Rain / Lech attack 1.12 + Heimstetten defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Heimstetten scores more
60%
level
20%
Rain / Lech scores more
20%

Heimstetten at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Heimstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heimstetten vs Rain / Lech

Heimstetten beat Rain / Lech 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on August 8, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Heimstetten in Kirchheim bei München.