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Heimstetten vs Grünwald — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Heimstetten
Heimstetten
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Grünwald
Grünwald
5/9/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 33Sportpark Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Heimstetten68%
×Draw16%
Grünwald16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heimstetten
2.79
Grünwald
1.31

Heimstetten creates 113% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 16 away

creates per match

Heimstetten
2.63
Grünwald
1.25

allows per match

Heimstetten
1.37
Grünwald
2.94

finishing

Heimstetten+0.00on par
Grünwald+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heimstetten ↓

Grünwald →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Heimstetten or draw
84%
Heimstetten or Grünwald
84%
Draw or Grünwald
32%

Winning margin

Heimstetten wins by 2+
47%
Grünwald wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Heimstetten 1+ goals
94%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
76%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
52%
Grünwald 1+ goals
73%
Grünwald 2+ goals
38%
Grünwald 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Heimstetten (draw refunded)
81%
Grünwald (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heimstetten at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

Grünwald away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heimstetten attack 2.63 + Grünwald defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.79

Grünwald attack 1.25 + Heimstetten defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Heimstetten scores more
68%
level
16%
Grünwald scores more
16%

Heimstetten at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Heimstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heimstetten vs Grünwald

Heimstetten beat Grünwald 5-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Heimstetten in Kirchheim bei München.