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Heimstetten vs Dachau — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Heimstetten
Heimstetten
FT
2 – 0
Dachau
Dachau
2/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Heimstetten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Heimstetten32%
×Draw19%
Dachau49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heimstetten
2.08
Dachau
2.60

Dachau creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Heimstetten
1.50
Dachau
1.00

allows per match

Heimstetten
4.20
Dachau
2.67

finishing

Heimstetten+0.00on par
Dachau+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heimstetten ↓

Dachau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Heimstetten or draw
51%
Heimstetten or Dachau
81%
Draw or Dachau
68%

Winning margin

Heimstetten wins by 2+
17%
Dachau wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Heimstetten 1+ goals
87%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
61%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
34%
Dachau 1+ goals
92%
Dachau 2+ goals
73%
Dachau 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Heimstetten (draw refunded)
39%
Dachau (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heimstetten at home — creates 1.50, concedes 4.20 · 10 matches

Dachau away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heimstetten attack 1.50 + Dachau defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Dachau attack 1.00 + Heimstetten defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Heimstetten scores more
32%
level
19%
Dachau scores more
49%

Dachau at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dachau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Heimstetten 2–0 Dachau

Heimstetten beat Dachau 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Heimstetten in Kirchheim bei München.