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Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
12/7/2022League OneLeague One · Round 34Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring36%
×Draw27%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.25
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 57 away

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.45
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.08
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw
64%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
73%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
64%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
16%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
71%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
36%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
13%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
71%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
36%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
50%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.45 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
36%
level
27%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
36%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2–1 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Heilongjiang Lava Spring beat Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2-1 in League One on December 7, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2 in Nanjing.