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Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Meizhou Meixian Techand — League One 2018

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
6/22/2019League OneLeague One · Round 14Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring48%
×Draw24%
Meizhou Meixian Techand28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.66
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.21

Heilongjiang Lava Spring creates 37% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 30 away

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.45
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.33

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.08
Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.87

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par
Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Meizhou Meixian Techand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw
72%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Meizhou Meixian Techand
76%
Draw or Meizhou Meixian Techand
52%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
25%
Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
81%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
49%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
23%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
70%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
34%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
63%
Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.45 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.66

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.33 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
48%
level
24%
Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
28%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Meizhou Meixian Techand

Heilongjiang Lava Spring beat Meizhou Meixian Techand 2-1 in League One on June 22, 2019.

The match was played at Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center in Harbin.