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Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Jinan Xingzhou — League One 2018

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
8/12/2023League OneLeague One · Round 18Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring41%
×Draw28%
Jinan Xingzhou31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.29
Jinan Xingzhou
1.08

Heilongjiang Lava Spring creates 19% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 15 away

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.45
Jinan Xingzhou
1.07

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.08
Jinan Xingzhou
1.13

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw
69%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Jinan Xingzhou
72%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
59%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
19%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
72%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
37%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
14%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
66%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
29%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
57%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.45 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
41%
level
28%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
31%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Jinan Xingzhou

Heilongjiang Lava Spring and Jinan Xingzhou drew 2-2 in League One on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center in Harbin.