Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2–2 Beijing Baxy

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Beijing Baxy

9/29/2019

League One · Round 27Harbin International Conference Exhibition and Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring47%

×Draw26%

Beijing Baxy27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heilongjiang Lava SpringExpected goals in this matchBeijing Baxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.50

Beijing Baxy

1.08

Heilongjiang Lava Spring creates 39% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 71 away

1.45

creates per match

1.07

1.08

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.45

Beijing Baxy

1.07

allows per match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

1.08

Beijing Baxy

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heilongjiang Lava Spring ↓

Beijing Baxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or draw

73%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring or Beijing Baxy

74%

Draw or Beijing Baxy

53%

Winning margin

Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+

23%

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals

78%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals

44%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals

19%

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals

66%

Beijing Baxy 2+ goals

29%

Beijing Baxy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)

63%

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.45 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more

47%

level

26%

Beijing Baxy scores more

27%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Heilongjiang Lava Spring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff