Heiderscheid / Eschdorf 0–11 Progres Niederkorn

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf

0 – 11

HT: 0 – 6

Progres Niederkorn

10/1/2023

Cup · 2nd RoundStade Um Quatre-Vents

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf4%

×Draw7%

Progres Niederkorn89%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heiderscheid / EschdorfExpected goals in this matchProgres Niederkorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

4.28

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf

0.93

Progres Niederkorn

4.28

Progres Niederkorn creates 360% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

0.86

creates per match

4.13

4.43

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf

0.86

Progres Niederkorn

4.13

allows per match

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf

4.43

Progres Niederkorn

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf+0.00on par

Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf ↓

Progres Niederkorn →

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–38%

0–49%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf or draw

11%

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf or Progres Niederkorn

93%

Draw or Progres Niederkorn

96%

Winning margin

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf wins by 2+

Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+

76%

Team goals

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf 1+ goals

61%

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf 2+ goals

24%

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf 3+ goals

Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals

98%

Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals

91%

Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals

77%

Draw no bet

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf (draw refunded)

Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf at home — creates 0.86, concedes 4.43 · 7 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 4.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf attack 0.86 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Progres Niederkorn attack 4.13 + Heiderscheid / Eschdorf defence 4.43 → ÷2 → 4.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 89%?"

Heiderscheid / Eschdorf scores more

level

Progres Niederkorn scores more

89%

Progres Niederkorn at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Progres Niederkorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff