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Heidenheim U19 vs Stuttgart U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Heidenheim U19
Heidenheim U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stuttgart U19
Stuttgart U19
10/28/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 9Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Heidenheim U1928%
×Draw20%
Stuttgart U1952%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heidenheim U19
1.63
Stuttgart U19
2.27

Stuttgart U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 71 away

creates per match

Heidenheim U19
1.91
Stuttgart U19
2.75

allows per match

Heidenheim U19
1.79
Stuttgart U19
1.34

finishing

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par
Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidenheim U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Heidenheim U19 or draw
48%
Heidenheim U19 or Stuttgart U19
80%
Draw or Stuttgart U19
72%

Winning margin

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+
13%
Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals
80%
Heidenheim U19 2+ goals
48%
Heidenheim U19 3+ goals
22%
Stuttgart U19 1+ goals
90%
Stuttgart U19 2+ goals
66%
Stuttgart U19 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidenheim U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.91 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.75 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Heidenheim U19 scores more
28%
level
20%
Stuttgart U19 scores more
52%

Stuttgart U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Heidenheim U19 2–0 Stuttgart U19

Heidenheim U19 beat Stuttgart U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion in Heidenheim an der Brenz.