Heidenheim U19 5–2 Chemnitzer FC U19

Heidenheim U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Chemnitzer FC U19

4/4/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 9Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Heidenheim U1952%

×Draw20%

Chemnitzer FC U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heidenheim U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.63

Heidenheim U19

2.25

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.63

Heidenheim U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 46 away

1.91

creates per match

1.46

1.79

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Heidenheim U19

1.91

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.46

allows per match

Heidenheim U19

1.79

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidenheim U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Heidenheim U19 or draw

72%

Heidenheim U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

80%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

48%

Winning margin

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

31%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

89%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

65%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

39%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

80%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

48%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidenheim U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.91 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.25

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.46 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Heidenheim U19 scores more

52%

level

20%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

28%

Heidenheim U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff