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Heidenheim U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Heidenheim U19
Heidenheim U19advanced
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
5/3/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Heidenheim U1933%
×Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heidenheim U19
1.64
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.95

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

creates per match

Heidenheim U19
1.91
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.10

allows per match

Heidenheim U19
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.37

finishing

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidenheim U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Heidenheim U19 or draw
55%
Heidenheim U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19
78%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19
67%

Winning margin

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+
16%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals
81%
Heidenheim U19 2+ goals
49%
Heidenheim U19 3+ goals
23%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
86%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
58%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)
42%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidenheim U19 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.37 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.91 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.10 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Heidenheim U19 scores more
33%
level
22%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
45%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Heidenheim U19 1 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Heidenheim U19 and Bayer Leverkusen U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 3, 2026.