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Heidelberg United vs Wellington Phoenix — Australia Cup 2021

Heidelberg United
Heidelberg Unitedadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix
8/19/2025Australia CupAustralia Cup · Quarter-finalsOlympic Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Heidelberg United62%
×Draw21%
Wellington Phoenix17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heidelberg United
2.00
Wellington Phoenix
0.95

Heidelberg United creates 111% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Heidelberg United
2.40
Wellington Phoenix
1.30

allows per match

Heidelberg United
0.60
Wellington Phoenix
1.60

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par
Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

Wellington Phoenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw
83%
Heidelberg United or Wellington Phoenix
79%
Draw or Wellington Phoenix
38%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+
37%
Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals
86%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
59%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
32%
Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
61%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
25%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
78%
Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 2.40 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.30 + Heidelberg United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Heidelberg United scores more
62%
level
21%
Wellington Phoenix scores more
17%

Heidelberg United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Heidelberg United 4–0 Wellington Phoenix

Heidelberg United beat Wellington Phoenix 4-0 in Australia Cup on August 19, 2025.

The match was played at Olympic Park Stadium in Melbourne.