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Heidelberg United vs South Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Heidelberg United
Heidelberg United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
South Melbourne
South Melbourne
7/26/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 23Olympic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Heidelberg United41%
×Draw25%
South Melbourne34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heidelberg United
1.48
South Melbourne
1.31

Heidelberg United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 89 away

creates per match

Heidelberg United
1.80
South Melbourne
1.49

allows per match

Heidelberg United
1.14
South Melbourne
1.15

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par
South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

South Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw
66%
Heidelberg United or South Melbourne
75%
Draw or South Melbourne
59%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+
20%
South Melbourne wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals
77%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
43%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
19%
South Melbourne 1+ goals
73%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
38%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
55%
South Melbourne (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 1.80 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Heidelberg United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Heidelberg United scores more
41%
level
25%
South Melbourne scores more
34%

Heidelberg United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heidelberg United vs South Melbourne

Heidelberg United and South Melbourne drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Olympic Park in Melbourne.