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Heidelberg United vs Newcastle Jets — Australia Cup 2021

Heidelberg United
Heidelberg United
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jetsadvanced
10/4/2025Australia CupAustralia Cup · FinalLakeside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Heidelberg United39%
×Draw22%
Newcastle Jets39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heidelberg United
1.82
Newcastle Jets
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Heidelberg United
2.40
Newcastle Jets
3.00

allows per match

Heidelberg United
0.60
Newcastle Jets
1.25

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par
Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

Newcastle Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw
61%
Heidelberg United or Newcastle Jets
78%
Draw or Newcastle Jets
61%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+
21%
Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals
84%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
54%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
27%
Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
83%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
54%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
51%
Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle Jets away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 2.40 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Newcastle Jets attack 3.00 + Heidelberg United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Heidelberg United scores more
39%
level
22%
Newcastle Jets scores more
39%

Heidelberg United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heidelberg United vs Newcastle Jets

Heidelberg United and Newcastle Jets drew 1-1 in Australia Cup on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Lakeside Stadium in Melbourne.