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Heidelberg United vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2026

Heidelberg United
Heidelberg United
FT
3 – 2
Kingston City
Kingston City
4/5/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 8Olympic Park (Village) (Melbourne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Heidelberg United50%
×Draw22%
Kingston City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heidelberg United
1.90
Kingston City
1.38

Heidelberg United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 13 away

creates per match

Heidelberg United
1.80
Kingston City
1.62

allows per match

Heidelberg United
1.14
Kingston City
2.00

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw
72%
Heidelberg United or Kingston City
78%
Draw or Kingston City
50%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+
28%
Kingston City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals
85%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
56%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
29%
Kingston City 1+ goals
75%
Kingston City 2+ goals
40%
Kingston City 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
64%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 1.80 + Kingston City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kingston City attack 1.62 + Heidelberg United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Heidelberg United scores more
50%
level
22%
Kingston City scores more
28%

Heidelberg United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Heidelberg United 3–2 Kingston City

Heidelberg United beat Kingston City 3-2 in Victoria NPL on April 5, 2019.

The match was played at Olympic Park (Village) (Melbourne).