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Heidelberg United vs Central Coast Mariners — Australia Cup 2021

Heidelberg United
Heidelberg Unitedadvanced
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
8/7/2024Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 32Olympic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Heidelberg United40%
×Draw25%
Central Coast Mariners35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heidelberg United
1.50
Central Coast Mariners
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Heidelberg United
2.40
Central Coast Mariners
2.20

allows per match

Heidelberg United
0.60
Central Coast Mariners
0.60

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw
65%
Heidelberg United or Central Coast Mariners
75%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
60%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+
19%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals
78%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
44%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
19%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
75%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
41%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
53%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 2.40 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Central Coast Mariners attack 2.20 + Heidelberg United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Heidelberg United scores more
40%
level
25%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
35%

Heidelberg United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Heidelberg United 1–1 Central Coast Mariners

Heidelberg United and Central Coast Mariners drew 1-1 in Australia Cup on August 7, 2024.

The match was played at Olympic Park in Melbourne.