Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Heidelberg United vs Auckland — Australia Cup 2021

Heidelberg United
Heidelberg Unitedadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Auckland
Auckland
8/30/2025Australia CupAustralia Cup · Semi-finalsOlympic Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Heidelberg United39%
×Draw24%
Auckland37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heidelberg United
1.53
Auckland
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Heidelberg United
2.40
Auckland
2.33

allows per match

Heidelberg United
0.60
Auckland
0.67

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par
Auckland+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

Auckland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw
63%
Heidelberg United or Auckland
76%
Draw or Auckland
61%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+
19%
Auckland wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals
78%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
45%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
20%
Auckland 1+ goals
77%
Auckland 2+ goals
43%
Auckland 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
52%
Auckland (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Auckland away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 2.40 + Auckland defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Auckland attack 2.33 + Heidelberg United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Heidelberg United scores more
39%
level
24%
Auckland scores more
37%

Heidelberg United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heidelberg United vs Auckland

Heidelberg United beat Auckland 2-0 in Australia Cup on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Olympic Park Stadium in Melbourne.