Heidelberg United 3–1 Altona Magic: Result & Stats

Heidelberg United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Altona Magic

3/28/2025

Victoria NPL · Round 8Olympic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Heidelberg United54%

×Draw22%

Altona Magic25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heidelberg UnitedExpected goals in this matchAltona Magic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.27

Heidelberg United

1.97

Altona Magic

1.27

Heidelberg United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

1.80

creates per match

1.40

1.14

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Heidelberg United

1.80

Altona Magic

1.40

allows per match

Heidelberg United

1.14

Altona Magic

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Altona Magic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

Altona Magic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw

75%

Heidelberg United or Altona Magic

78%

Draw or Altona Magic

46%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+

31%

Altona Magic wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals

86%

Heidelberg United 2+ goals

58%

Heidelberg United 3+ goals

31%

Altona Magic 1+ goals

72%

Altona Magic 2+ goals

36%

Altona Magic 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)

69%

Altona Magic (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

Altona Magic away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 1.80 + Altona Magic defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.97

Altona Magic attack 1.40 + Heidelberg United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Heidelberg United scores more

54%

level

22%

Altona Magic scores more

25%

Heidelberg United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff