Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 101+ matches
Hegelmann Litauen34%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 101 home / 127 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hegelmann Litauen ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hegelmann Litauen at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches
FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.87, concedes 0.86 · 127 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.74 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.30
FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.87 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.42
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hegelmann Litauen host FK Zalgiris Vilnius on Sunday, 20 April 2025 at 15:25. The match is part of the A Lyga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Hegelmann Litauen beat FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 in A Lyga on April 20, 2025.
The match was played at Raudondvario stadionas in Kaunas.