FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Hegelmann Litauen

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hegelmann Litauen

2/8/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius52%

×Draw23%

Hegelmann Litauen25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchHegelmann Litauen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.19

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.82

Hegelmann Litauen

1.19

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 53% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.14

creates per match

1.25

1.14

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.14

Hegelmann Litauen

1.25

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.14

Hegelmann Litauen

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Hegelmann Litauen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

75%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Hegelmann Litauen

77%

Draw or Hegelmann Litauen

48%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

29%

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

84%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

54%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

27%

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals

70%

Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals

33%

Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

68%

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Hegelmann Litauen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.14 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.25 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

52%

level

23%

Hegelmann Litauen scores more

25%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Hegelmann Litauen 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 8, 2026.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen