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Hegelmann II vs FK Trakai — 1 Lyga 2026

Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
FK Trakai
FK Trakai
3/15/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 2LFF Kauno treniruočių centras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hegelmann II20%
×Draw23%
FK Trakai57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hegelmann II
0.92
FK Trakai
1.76

FK Trakai creates 91% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hegelmann II
1.24
FK Trakai
1.87

allows per match

Hegelmann II
1.65
FK Trakai
0.60

finishing

Hegelmann II+0.00on par
FK Trakai+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann II ↓

FK Trakai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hegelmann II or draw
43%
Hegelmann II or FK Trakai
77%
Draw or FK Trakai
80%

Winning margin

Hegelmann II wins by 2+
6%
FK Trakai wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Hegelmann II 1+ goals
60%
Hegelmann II 2+ goals
23%
Hegelmann II 3+ goals
7%
FK Trakai 1+ goals
83%
FK Trakai 2+ goals
52%
FK Trakai 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann II (draw refunded)
25%
FK Trakai (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann II at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

FK Trakai away — creates 1.87, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann II attack 1.24 + FK Trakai defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.92

FK Trakai attack 1.87 + Hegelmann II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hegelmann II scores more
20%
level
23%
FK Trakai scores more
57%

FK Trakai at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FK Trakai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hegelmann II vs FK Trakai

FK Trakai beat Hegelmann II 5-0 in 1 Lyga on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at LFF Kauno treniruočių centras in Kaunas.