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Heerenveen W vs Excelsior W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Heerenveen W
Heerenveen W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Excelsior W
Excelsior W
2/1/2025Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 14Sportpark Skoatterwâld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Heerenveen W58%
×Draw21%
Excelsior W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heerenveen W
2.13
Excelsior W
1.22

Heerenveen W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 74 away

creates per match

Heerenveen W
1.49
Excelsior W
0.68

allows per match

Heerenveen W
1.76
Excelsior W
2.76

finishing

Heerenveen W+0.00on par
Excelsior W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen W ↓

Excelsior W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Heerenveen W or draw
79%
Heerenveen W or Excelsior W
79%
Draw or Excelsior W
42%

Winning margin

Heerenveen W wins by 2+
35%
Excelsior W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Heerenveen W 1+ goals
88%
Heerenveen W 2+ goals
63%
Heerenveen W 3+ goals
35%
Excelsior W 1+ goals
70%
Excelsior W 2+ goals
34%
Excelsior W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen W (draw refunded)
73%
Excelsior W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen W at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Excelsior W away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.76 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen W attack 1.49 + Excelsior W defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.13

Excelsior W attack 0.68 + Heerenveen W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Heerenveen W scores more
58%
level
21%
Excelsior W scores more
21%

Heerenveen W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Heerenveen W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie Women: Heerenveen W 5–1 Excelsior W

Heerenveen W beat Excelsior W 5-1 in Eredivisie Women on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Skoatterwâld in Heerenveen.