Heerenveen W 1–4 Ajax W: Result & Stats

Heerenveen W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Ajax W

12/15/2024

Eredivisie Women · Round 10Sportpark Skoatterwâld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Heerenveen W23%

×Draw21%

Ajax W57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heerenveen WExpected goals in this matchAjax W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.17

Heerenveen W

1.31

Ajax W

2.17

Ajax W creates 66% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

1.49

creates per match

2.58

1.76

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Heerenveen W

1.49

Ajax W

2.58

allows per match

Heerenveen W

1.76

Ajax W

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heerenveen W+0.00on par

Ajax W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen W ↓

Ajax W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Heerenveen W or draw

43%

Heerenveen W or Ajax W

79%

Draw or Ajax W

77%

Winning margin

Heerenveen W wins by 2+

9%

Ajax W wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Heerenveen W 1+ goals

73%

Heerenveen W 2+ goals

38%

Heerenveen W 3+ goals

14%

Ajax W 1+ goals

89%

Ajax W 2+ goals

64%

Ajax W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen W (draw refunded)

29%

Ajax W (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen W at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Ajax W away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen W attack 1.49 + Ajax W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ajax W attack 2.58 + Heerenveen W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Heerenveen W scores more

23%

level

21%

Ajax W scores more

57%

Ajax W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ajax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff