Heerenveen 1–1 FC Volendam: Result & Stats

Heerenveen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Volendam

8/9/2025

Eredivisie · Round 1Abe Lenstra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Heerenveen54%

×Draw22%

FC Volendam23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeerenveenExpected goals in this matchFC Volendam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.17

Heerenveen

1.91

FC Volendam

1.17

Heerenveen creates 63% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 52 away

1.53

creates per match

0.83

1.50

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Heerenveen

1.53

FC Volendam

0.83

allows per match

Heerenveen

1.50

FC Volendam

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heerenveen+0.00on par

FC Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen ↓

FC Volendam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Heerenveen or draw

77%

Heerenveen or FC Volendam

78%

Draw or FC Volendam

46%

Winning margin

Heerenveen wins by 2+

31%

FC Volendam wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Heerenveen 1+ goals

85%

Heerenveen 2+ goals

57%

Heerenveen 3+ goals

30%

FC Volendam 1+ goals

69%

FC Volendam 2+ goals

33%

FC Volendam 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen (draw refunded)

70%

FC Volendam (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.50 · 135 matches

FC Volendam away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.29 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen attack 1.53 + FC Volendam defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.91

FC Volendam attack 0.83 + Heerenveen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Heerenveen scores more

54%

level

22%

FC Volendam scores more

23%

Heerenveen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Heerenveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff