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Heerenveen U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Heerenveen U21
Heerenveen U21
FT
1 – 1
Twente / Heracles U21
Twente / Heracles U21
9/5/2020U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Round 1Sportpark Skoatterwâld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Heerenveen U2134%
×Draw22%
Twente / Heracles U2144%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heerenveen U21
1.61
Twente / Heracles U21
1.86

Twente / Heracles U21 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 60 away

creates per match

Heerenveen U21
1.20
Twente / Heracles U21
1.82

allows per match

Heerenveen U21
1.90
Twente / Heracles U21
2.03

finishing

Heerenveen U21+0.00on par
Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen U21 ↓

Twente / Heracles U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Heerenveen U21 or draw
56%
Heerenveen U21 or Twente / Heracles U21
78%
Draw or Twente / Heracles U21
66%

Winning margin

Heerenveen U21 wins by 2+
16%
Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Heerenveen U21 1+ goals
80%
Heerenveen U21 2+ goals
48%
Heerenveen U21 3+ goals
22%
Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals
84%
Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals
55%
Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen U21 (draw refunded)
43%
Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen U21 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Twente / Heracles U21 away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen U21 attack 1.20 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.61

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.82 + Heerenveen U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Heerenveen U21 scores more
34%
level
22%
Twente / Heracles U21 scores more
44%

Twente / Heracles U21 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Twente / Heracles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heerenveen U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21

Heerenveen U21 and Twente / Heracles U21 drew 1-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark Skoatterwâld in Heerenveen.