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Heerenveen U21 vs Feyenoord U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Heerenveen U21
Heerenveen U21
CANC
13:45
Feyenoord U21
Feyenoord U21
11/7/2020U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Round 10Sportpark Skoatterwâld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Heerenveen U2128%
×Draw22%
Feyenoord U2150%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heerenveen U21
1.39
Feyenoord U21
1.94

Feyenoord U21 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 69 away

creates per match

Heerenveen U21
1.20
Feyenoord U21
1.99

allows per match

Heerenveen U21
1.90
Feyenoord U21
1.58

finishing

Heerenveen U21+0.00on par
Feyenoord U21+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen U21 ↓

Feyenoord U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Heerenveen U21 or draw
50%
Heerenveen U21 or Feyenoord U21
78%
Draw or Feyenoord U21
72%

Winning margin

Heerenveen U21 wins by 2+
12%
Feyenoord U21 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Heerenveen U21 1+ goals
75%
Heerenveen U21 2+ goals
40%
Heerenveen U21 3+ goals
16%
Feyenoord U21 1+ goals
86%
Feyenoord U21 2+ goals
58%
Feyenoord U21 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen U21 (draw refunded)
35%
Feyenoord U21 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen U21 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Feyenoord U21 away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen U21 attack 1.20 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Feyenoord U21 attack 1.99 + Heerenveen U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Heerenveen U21 scores more
28%
level
22%
Feyenoord U21 scores more
50%

Feyenoord U21 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Feyenoord U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Heerenveen U21 host Feyenoord U21

November 7, 2020: Heerenveen U21 take on Feyenoord U21 in U21 Divisie 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Heerenveen U21 host Feyenoord U21 at Sportpark Skoatterwâld.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.