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Hednesford Town vs Lancaster City — League #59 2026

Hednesford Town
Hednesford Town
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Lancaster City
Lancaster City
O. Sterling-James 30'
M. Gibson 24', 11'
2/21/2026League #59League #59 · Round 32Keys Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hednesford Town56%
×Draw24%
Lancaster City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hednesford Town
1.75
Lancaster City
0.97

Hednesford Town creates 80% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hednesford Town
2.00
Lancaster City
1.50

allows per match

Hednesford Town
0.45
Lancaster City
1.50

finishing

Hednesford Town+0.00on par
Lancaster City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hednesford Town ↓

Lancaster City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hednesford Town or draw
79%
Hednesford Town or Lancaster City
76%
Draw or Lancaster City
44%

Winning margin

Hednesford Town wins by 2+
31%
Lancaster City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hednesford Town 1+ goals
83%
Hednesford Town 2+ goals
52%
Hednesford Town 3+ goals
25%
Lancaster City 1+ goals
62%
Lancaster City 2+ goals
25%
Lancaster City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hednesford Town (draw refunded)
73%
Lancaster City (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hednesford Town at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Lancaster City away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hednesford Town attack 2.00 + Lancaster City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Lancaster City attack 1.50 + Hednesford Town defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hednesford Town scores more
56%
level
24%
Lancaster City scores more
21%

Hednesford Town at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hednesford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Gibson
24'
M. Gibson
30'
O. Sterling-James

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hednesford Town 3 – 0 Lancaster City

Hednesford Town beat Lancaster City 3-0 in League #59 on February 21, 2026.

Goals: M. Gibson (11', 24'), O. Sterling-James (30').

The match was played at Keys Park in Hednesford, Staffordshire.