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Hednesford Town vs Ashton United — League #59 2026

Hednesford Town
Hednesford Town
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Ashton United
Ashton United
G. Williams 90+4'
J. Doyle-Charles 72'
M. Gibson 11'
D. Osei 42', 33'
C. Spooner 24'
4/25/2026League #59League #59 · Round 42Keys Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hednesford Town65%
×Draw19%
Ashton United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hednesford Town
2.33
Ashton United
1.06

Hednesford Town creates 120% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hednesford Town
2.00
Ashton United
1.67

allows per match

Hednesford Town
0.45
Ashton United
2.67

finishing

Hednesford Town+0.00on par
Ashton United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hednesford Town ↓

Ashton United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hednesford Town or draw
84%
Hednesford Town or Ashton United
81%
Draw or Ashton United
35%

Winning margin

Hednesford Town wins by 2+
43%
Ashton United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hednesford Town 1+ goals
90%
Hednesford Town 2+ goals
67%
Hednesford Town 3+ goals
41%
Ashton United 1+ goals
65%
Ashton United 2+ goals
29%
Ashton United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hednesford Town (draw refunded)
80%
Ashton United (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hednesford Town at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Ashton United away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hednesford Town attack 2.00 + Ashton United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Ashton United attack 1.67 + Hednesford Town defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hednesford Town scores more
65%
level
19%
Ashton United scores more
16%

Hednesford Town at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hednesford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Gibson
24'
C. Spooner
33'
D. Osei
42'
D. Osei
72'
J. Doyle-Charles
90+4'
G. Williams

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hednesford Town vs Ashton United

Hednesford Town and Ashton United drew 3-3 in League #59 on April 25, 2026.

Goals: M. Gibson (11'), C. Spooner (24'), D. Osei (33', 42'), J. Doyle-Charles (72'), G. Williams (90+4').

The match was played at Keys Park in Hednesford, Staffordshire.