Hebei Zhongji 0–0 Jiangsu Suning: Result & Stats

Hebei Zhongji

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jiangsu Suning

7/22/2018

Super League · Round 13Langfang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hebei Zhongji30%

×Draw24%

Jiangsu Suning47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebei ZhongjiExpected goals in this matchJiangsu Suning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.72

Hebei Zhongji

1.33

Jiangsu Suning

1.72

Jiangsu Suning creates 29% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 39 away

1.21

creates per match

1.54

1.90

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Hebei Zhongji

1.21

Jiangsu Suning

1.54

allows per match

Hebei Zhongji

1.90

Jiangsu Suning

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Zhongji ↓

Jiangsu Suning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hebei Zhongji or draw

53%

Hebei Zhongji or Jiangsu Suning

76%

Draw or Jiangsu Suning

70%

Winning margin

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

13%

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

74%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

38%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

15%

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals

82%

Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals

51%

Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

39%

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Zhongji at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

Jiangsu Suning away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Zhongji attack 1.21 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.54 + Hebei Zhongji defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hebei Zhongji scores more

30%

level

24%

Jiangsu Suning scores more

47%

Jiangsu Suning at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff