Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hebei Zhongji vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
8/7/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Suzhou City Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Hebei Zhongji36%
×Draw24%
Chongqing Lifan40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebei Zhongji
1.50
Chongqing Lifan
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 50 away

creates per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.21
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.90
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Zhongji ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hebei Zhongji or draw
60%
Hebei Zhongji or Chongqing Lifan
76%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
64%

Winning margin

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
17%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
78%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
44%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
19%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
79%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
46%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
48%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Zhongji at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Zhongji attack 1.21 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Hebei Zhongji defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hebei Zhongji scores more
36%
level
24%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
40%

Chongqing Lifan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chongqing Lifan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebei Zhongji vs Chongqing Lifan

Hebei Zhongji and Chongqing Lifan drew 2-2 in Super League on August 7, 2020.

The match was played at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Suzhou.